We continue our blog series: Market Musings, Volume 1, Edition 18, giving our (hopefully not too random) thoughts on recent goings-on in the markets. Today, we present Drive-By Analysis: National CineMedia (NCMI) Edition. Today, we present a brief look at National CineMedia (ticker NCMI). As of the end of Q3 2017, NCMI owned 48.8% of National CineMedia, LLC ("NCM LLC", i.e., the operating company), which sells movie theatre advertising under long-term exhibitor services agreements (“ESAs”) with NCM LLC's founding members (American Multi-Cinema, Inc. and AMC ShowPlace Theatres, Inc., wholly owned subsidiaries of AMC Entertainment, Inc. (“AMC”), Regal Cinemas, Inc. and Regal CineMedia Holdings
Seven Corners today issued its writeup regarding Emergent Capital (ticker EMGC). Specifically, we are long the stock and believe that EMGC is worth approximately $1.27 to $1.28/share, representing upside of nearly 235% from the current trading level. Please visit our Research Section to obtain a PDF copy our full writeup on EMGC.
We continue our blog series: Market Musings, Volume 1, Edition 17, giving our (hopefully not too random) thoughts on recent goings-on in the markets. Today, we present Genworth's Plan B. We have a medium-sized position in Genworth Financial (ticker GNW), which in October 2016 signed an agreement to be acquired by China Oceanwide for $5.43/share in cash (see merger PR here). We previously posted our analysis of the likelihood of completion of this merger (see here). GNW's management is still attempting to obtain regulatory approvals for the China Oceanwide deal, well over year after the deal was first announced. In late November, they provided the following status update (source): The overrid
We continue our blog series: Market Musings, Volume 1, Edition 16, giving our (hopefully not too random) thoughts on recent goings-on in the markets. Today, we present Don't Override the Model and A Few Thoughts on the Crypto Stock Mania. 1. Don't Override the Model - An interesting article on quant hedge fund Renaissance Technologies (RenTech) founder James Simons appears in the most recent issue of the New Yorker (link here). Most of the article centers on his philanthropic efforts to advance science, however the following tidbit was included which sheds light on his secret investing sauce: "Beyond saying that [an algorithm he had recently come up with] didn’t work, he wouldn’t discuss the
We continue our blog series: Market Musings, Volume 1, Edition 15, giving our (hopefully not too random) thoughts on recent goings-on in the markets. Today, we present Disney's Fox Purchase Indicates Viacom's Strategic Value Is $59.50/Share. If Disney's (ticker DIS) recent agreement to purchase most of the media assets of Twenty-First Century Fox (ticker FOXA) for $52 billion in DIS stock tells us anything, it illustrates what the going rate for such assets is today in the hands of a strategic buyer. Below is a description of the transaction from the joint PR announcing the deal (source): Specifically, DIS obtains ownership of the following properties: 1. Fox's Film Business, consisting of T
We continue our blog series: Market Musings, Volume 1, Edition 14, giving our (hopefully not too random) thoughts on recent goings-on in the markets. Today, we present Bitcoin and the Obsession With Market Quotations. If the current Bitcoin craze elucidates anything, it shows how deeply the gambling instinct is ingrained in the human psyche. Here we have something that isn't actually a thing at all (unlike gold or tulip bulbs, you can't hold or touch bitcoin), but rather exists somewhere in the ether. Whether it ultimately has any utility to humankind remains up for debate, however one attribute it does have makes all the difference right now: it has a market quotation, and to borrow a quote
We continue our blog series: Market Musings, Volume 1, Edition 13, giving our (hopefully not too random) thoughts on recent goings-on in the markets. Today, we present How to Buy a Fertilizer Plant (or Two) at 34% Off of List Price. Ever have a desire to buy a fully-functioning fertilizer plant or two for a dirt cheap (pun intended) price (namely, a one-third discount to actual value), it's your lucky day. Got dung? Oh yeah, we do--read on... Meet CVR Partners (ticker UAN; investor relations site here). CVR Partners owns two fertilizer plants, one located in Coffeyville, KS and the other in East Dubuque, IL. Below is a quick summary of the two facilities from a 2016 CVR Partners investor pre
We continue our blog series: Market Musings, Volume 1, Edition 12, giving our (hopefully not too random) thoughts on recent goings-on in the markets. Today, we present Buffett's Way to Wealth. We came across an intriguing graphic recently, showing the progression of Warren Buffett's net worth was by age: Interestingly, Buffett has been able to consistently increase his personal net worth at a high compounding rate throughout his life (without excessive variation in his CAGR, in contrast to somebody like Zuckerberg or Gates who saw gigantic leaps in relatively short time periods). From age 19 through age 32 [1949-1962], Buffett's net worth increased from $10,000 to $1,000,000, or 100-fold, re
We continue our blog series: Market Musings, Volume 1, Edition 11, giving our (hopefully not too random) thoughts on recent goings-on in the markets. Today, we present Further Thoughts on Viacom. We previously presented our long thesis on Viacom's B shares (ticker VIAB) via a 20+ page writeup in late October (for reference, see here). We followed this up about a month ago with a blog post comparing Viacom to Netflix (ticker NFLX) (for reference, see here). Since our initial calls on VIAB, the shares have appreciated about 20%: While it always feels good when people agree with you (or, at least, move incrementally in the direction of your views regarding valuation, etc.), it is a lot more imp
