As an investor is only as good as his or her actual bottom-line results over time ("You are what your results say you are"), we herewith provide the aggregate results for the stock picks (longs, shorts and special situations) which we publicly posted on our Research page on this website during the 4-year period from July 1, 2015 through June 30, 2019. Please note: all stock prices (x) for open picks are as of July 17, 2019 and (y) for closed picks are as of the date of closure. Please also note that we have never removed a publicly posted stock thesis from the Research page for any reason--all of our crappy picks are still there for anyone to read in all of their glory.
Both the average pick and the average CAGR were approximately 12% (the latter was high due to a single short-term arb play throwing off the numbers somewhat). Out of the sixteen picks, 12 have returned positively, while 4 have returned negatively (resulting in a respectable enough 75% batting average). One side note: When we recommended or covered a stock on multiple occasions (such as with RAD, GM, TSLA, etc.), we only included it once in the above table, as of the date we first recommended it. RAD is listed twice because it was initially recommended in August 2016 as a short-term arbitrage play (which position was closed out when the stock subsequently hit the $8.25/share target price), and then again in early 2019 as a generic long play (the two RAD writeups posted in 2018 did not recommend that investors buy the stock, rather they recommended that investors throw out the board of directors due to incompetence [a recommendation which still stands]). The GNW arbitrage was closed out in early 2019 when the stock hit our $4.93 target price (see our real-time notification of this fact here).
Overall, the results of our public picks should be considered respectable, perhaps slightly above mediocre. We give ourselves a B-minus. The main issue is the glaring lack of multi-baggers--there is not a single one, in fact, in the group. Realistically, multi-baggers are the only way to outperform the market (anyone holding NFLX over the past 8 years knows this all too well). One 20-bagger makes up for a lot of dud picks. Going forward, we intend to focus on these types of investments (extremely high potential upside versus medium to low potential downside) than on the GM's and the Viacom's of the world (low downside risk , but not much upside reward either--similar to a bond). Please be on the lookout for these type of picks from SCC in due course.